Mark My Words

In 2009 the World Wide Web will turn 20 years old, and popular micro-blogging service Twitter is set to go mainstream, or is it? The evidence: Well, because America says so. Or that’s the impression I got after reading the post by @TheNextCorner. The New York Times loves it, the Wall Street Journal loves it (at least twice), even Barack Obama loves it. But who are the beneficiaries here? Are we actually beginning to see an increase in the younger generations using Twitter or are we just seeing a growth in Generation X users who have a product to sell or an “expertise” to “share” with the world. You know, the ones who race to get a Twitter Grade of 100 by following hundreds of people and telling us how great their blogs posts are?

For me, Facebook is mainstream. The evidence: Around 99.9% of my real-world friends use it; in comparison to less than 1% on Twitter. Facebook has caught the hearts and minds of innovators, early adopters, the early and late majorities, and even laggards (anybody’s mum on Facebook?). It’s become so mainstream that I’m getting bored of it after almost three years of use. Funny, this is right about the same time when the majority of my friends are at the peak of their Facebook use. The same just hasn’t happened with Twitter, and I don’t think it ever will. Maybe because Twitter just isn’t very well understood, or maybe because it is redundant in comparison to Facebook’s “status” feature? A tweet from a fellow Millennial @hidama sums this up very well:

“For as much as people praise the youth on their grasp of tech, we don’t understand it - we just use it.”

I’m not suggesting that Twitter doesn’t have value, because it does serve a thriving niche. But by the time the late majority and laggards Millennials get to find out about it through the media or through word of mouth there will already be something new on the horizon. Which leads me to a very interesting question posed by @karma_musings:

“… What tech do you think will engage your gen instead? What’s coming down the pike?”

There’s (obviously) not an easy answer but I do predict sustained growth over the next few years in a few key areas:

1. Next-generation games consoles offering increased social features such as the new Nintendo Wii Speak and MotionPlus. This will progress into real-time video over an Internet connection and will integrate with a wider range of interactive media services such as the BBC iPlayer. Mature industries such as the music industry are already seeing paradigm shifts due to games such as Guitar Hero. Health and fitness-related games will continue to flourish with innovations such as Nintendo Wii Fit and My Health Coach for the Nintendo DS.
2. Mobile technologies will advance in conjunction with declining roaming data charges from cellular operators. This will mean we will be online 24/7 which will enable real-time push- and pull-model mobile applications to grow. Such connectivity will create a ubiquitous environment where digital interaction with machines will be pushed to the background and physical (and social) interaction between humans will become more prominent. Technology will be “tuned” into the way we interact with our environment and will respond accordingly.
3. The rise of new technology “super powers” such as mergers (for example) between Facebook and Google which simplify data collection, interpretation and propagation. The majority of Millennials don’t want multiple channels of information; they want a single stream of authoritative content which simplifies its retrieval. The growth of the Semantic Web will bridge this gap.

In conclusion, Twitter can be a public relations dream, and it is a useful tool for making new connections. But only if there’re people out there who’ll listen. I just don’t believe that the vast majority of Millennials will be there for you in the coming years. If you don’t believe me, try asking a few whilst you’re out on the street if they’re heard of Twitter.

NB: If you’re struggling about what a Millennial is, this great video should help you out!